How Tasmanian Winter Affects Solar Generation for Tasmanian Households

Yes, solar panels absolutely work through a Tasmanian winter, but they produce less power than in summer. The key reasons are shorter days and the sun sitting lower in the sky. While a clear, cold winter day can be very efficient for panels, the reduced daylight hours mean the total energy generated each day is lower. For Hobart, daily solar generation in winter can be less than half of what you’d see in summer, which is the most significant seasonal drop in Australia.

This doesn’t mean solar isn’t worthwhile. It just means a system needs to be sized correctly to account for this winter dip, especially if you rely on electricity for heating.

How much less power will my panels generate in winter?

You can expect your solar system’s output in Tasmania to drop by around 50-56% in the deepest winter months compared to the annual average. Summer days are long, giving you plenty of generation, while winter days are much shorter.

Here’s a rough idea of what to expect from different system sizes in Tasmania, comparing daily generation on a good summer day versus a typical winter day:

System Size	Average Summer Day (kWh)	Average Winter Day (kWh)
6.6kW	Around 23-26 kWh	Around 12-15 kWh
10kW	Around 35-40 kWh	Around 18-22 kWh
13kW	Around 45-50 kWh	Around 23-28 kWh

These are general estimates. Your actual output will depend on your specific location, roof orientation, panel quality, and, of course, the weather on any given day.

What’s the best size solar system for a Tasmanian home?

For most Tasmanian households looking to future-proof their home, a system of around 10kW to 13kW is now the smart choice. This might sound large, but it accounts for our lower winter generation and the move towards all-electric homes with heat pumps, induction cooktops, and electric vehicles (EVs).

The old standard: A 6.6kW system was once the default, but with rising electricity usage and falling installation costs, it’s often too small for a family home’s future needs.
The future-proof choice: A larger system (e.g., 13kW of panels on a 10kW inverter) provides a crucial buffer for winter. It helps cover your daytime usage and can still generate enough surplus to charge a battery or heat your hot water.
Good news for most homes: In Tasmania, our network distributor TasNetworks allows up to a 10kW inverter on a standard single-phase connection, which most homes have. This means you can install a powerful system without needing an expensive three-phase power upgrade.

A smaller system might still suit a very low-energy household with no plans to electrify, but it’s important to size your system for your needs in five years, not just today.

How do I get the most out of my panels in winter?

Maximising your winter solar generation comes down to two things: smart design and smart usage.

Smart Design:

Orientation: A north-facing roof is ideal in Tasmania as it captures the most of the low winter sun. If you don’t have a perfect north-facing roof, an east/west split is a great alternative. It spreads your generation across the day, catching the morning and afternoon sun, which is great for self-consumption.
Tilt Angle: The optimal tilt for year-round generation in Hobart is around 35-43 degrees. However, most installers will mount panels flush with your existing roof pitch (usually around 22.5 degrees) as the extra cost of tilt frames often doesn’t justify the small gain in output.
Avoid Shading: Winter sun is lower, so shadows from trees, chimneys, or neighbouring buildings become longer and can have a bigger impact. A good installer will map this out.

Smart Usage (Self-Consumption): The key to solar savings in Tasmania is to use the power you generate, not export it. You save around 28-30 c/kWh by using your own power, but only earn a modest feed-in tariff (currently 9.276 c/kWh from 1 July 2026) for power you send to the grid.

In winter, this means:

Running your dishwasher, washing machine, and dryer during the sunniest part of the day (e.g., 10 am to 2 pm).
Using timers on appliances to align with peak solar production.
If you have a heat pump, using it to warm the house during the day rather than just in the evening.

Is a battery worth it for a Tasmanian winter?

A battery can be a game-changer in winter, but the financial payback is slower here than on the mainland. Its main value is capturing scarce winter solar energy to use in the evening, avoiding expensive peak grid power.

The Financials: Tasmania’s relatively fair feed-in tariff and cheaper power mean the simple payback period for a battery can be around 7-12 years. The federal government’s Cheaper Home Batteries Program, available from 1 July 2025, can help by potentially reducing the upfront cost by about 30% for an eligible battery. There are no separate Tasmanian state battery rebates.
The Lifestyle Benefits: For many, the biggest benefit is blackout protection. Having a battery means your lights, fridge, and internet can stay on during a power outage, which can be common in winter storms.
Advanced Use: For those on specific retail plans, a smart battery can be programmed to charge from the grid when wholesale prices are very low or even negative, and then use that stored power to avoid high peak prices, adding another layer of savings.

A battery isn’t a must-have for everyone. It’s a significant extra investment, but for households wanting to maximise their solar usage and gain energy independence, especially through winter, it’s a powerful tool.

What about rebates and other costs?

When you buy a solar system, the price is reduced by a federal incentive that works like an upfront discount.

The STC Rebate: This is part of the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES). Tasmania is in STC Zone 4, which means the discount is slightly less than in sunnier parts of Australia, but it still typically covers a significant portion of the system cost. Your installer handles the paperwork and includes the discount directly in your quote. This rebate value decreases slightly each year on January 1st.

The most important thing to remember about solar in Tasmania is that a well-designed system is a fantastic long-term investment. It will reduce your power bills, even with our challenging but beautiful winters. The key is to size it right for your future needs and focus on using the clean energy you generate right here at home.

This guide was written by the team at Solar Generation Tasmania. We’re locals who are passionate about helping Tasmanians understand and benefit from solar energy.

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Published by Solar Generation Tasmania. General information current as at publication — rebates, tariffs and prices change, so confirm current figures before deciding.